Daily

Column

Important dates:

  • (purple dashed lines) Aug 31, Sept 14, Sept 28 and Jan 31, Feb 14, Feb 28: Return to campus/school, +2 weeks, +4 weeks

Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

Column

Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.

  • First plot is conservative (10-day total) estimate
  • Second plot is 14-day total used in MN Safe-Learning plan

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

By the Numbers

Column

Definitions

Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table

Eau Claire

Eau Claire cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
February 19 2021 10906 47315 351 104 118 199
February 20 2021 10923 47417 351 104 125 180
February 21 2021 10927 47482 351 104 112 160
February 22 2021 10938 47520 351 104 112 156
February 23 2021 10942 47601 352 105 105 154
February 24 2021 10961 47702 351 104 105 163
February 25 2021 10977 47961 351 104 110 162
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 2 0.4 7.3% 8 0.07% 13 0.11%
10-19 4 2.0 15.5% 17 0.12% 25 0.18%
20-29 5 3.3 27.3% 30 0.14% 43 0.21%
30-39 1 0.7 8.2% 9 0.07% 17 0.12%
40-49 1 1.6 11.8% 13 0.12% 14 0.13%
50-59 0 1.1 10% 11 0.09% 18 0.14%
60-69 0 1.0 9.1% 10 0.09% 15 0.13%
70+ 3 1.6 10.9% 12 0.11% 17 0.16%
All ages 16 11.7 100% 110 0.11% 162 0.15%

Chippewa

Chippewa cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
February 19 2021 6993 27804 216 90 63 97
February 20 2021 7000 27847 218 90 60 90
February 21 2021 7009 27886 218 90 57 91
February 22 2021 7009 27914 219 90 47 84
February 23 2021 7013 27958 219 90 44 83
February 24 2021 7013 28008 218 92 43 73
February 25 2021 7021 28230 218 92 51 69
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 -0.1 0% 0 0% 1 0.01%
10-19 3 1.3 25.5% 13 0.15% 17 0.2%
20-29 -1 -0.4 0% 0 0% 4 0.06%
30-39 -2 -0.3 5.9% 3 0.04% 9 0.11%
40-49 1 0.4 13.7% 7 0.09% 10 0.13%
50-59 1 1.9 27.5% 14 0.14% 18 0.19%
60-69 5 1.4 19.6% 10 0.12% 12 0.14%
70+ 1 0.4 7.8% 4 0.06% 6 0.08%
All ages 8 4.6 100% 51 0.08% 77 0.12%

Barron

Barron cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
February 19 2021 5282 18508 231 75 87 103
February 20 2021 5295 18530 231 75 90 112
February 21 2021 5299 18557 232 75 82 111
February 22 2021 5305 18570 233 75 80 113
February 23 2021 5309 18577 234 76 73 114
February 24 2021 5321 18612 234 76 76 116
February 25 2021 5327 18661 235 76 73 110
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 1 0.4 8.2% 6 0.11% 9 0.17%
10-19 1 1.0 11% 8 0.15% 12 0.22%
20-29 1 1.7 16.4% 12 0.27% 18 0.4%
30-39 0 1.0 9.6% 7 0.13% 9 0.17%
40-49 1 1.0 11% 8 0.16% 12 0.24%
50-59 2 1.9 23.3% 17 0.25% 21 0.31%
60-69 0 0.4 8.2% 6 0.09% 11 0.17%
70+ 0 0.7 12.3% 9 0.14% 18 0.28%
All ages 6 8.1 100% 73 0.16% 110 0.24%

La Crosse

La Crosse cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
February 19 2021 12115 51411 348 75 170 246
February 20 2021 12124 51518 350 75 145 231
February 21 2021 12127 51602 350 75 131 222
February 22 2021 12133 51647 351 75 125 215
February 23 2021 12144 51771 351 75 132 199
February 24 2021 12162 51976 353 77 135 183
February 25 2021 12170 52510 354 78 136 174
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 0.9 8.1% 11 0.09% 14 0.12%
10-19 0 1.9 14.7% 20 0.12% 30 0.18%
20-29 3 2.4 17.6% 24 0.11% 31 0.15%
30-39 1 1.6 14.7% 20 0.15% 25 0.18%
40-49 1 1.1 13.2% 18 0.13% 20 0.15%
50-59 0 1.3 10.3% 14 0.1% 18 0.13%
60-69 1 0.6 8.1% 11 0.08% 13 0.09%
70+ 2 1.3 13.2% 18 0.14% 23 0.18%
All ages 8 11.0 100% 136 0.12% 174 0.15%

Dane

Dane cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
February 19 2021 39744 318193 1204 268 937 1257
February 20 2021 39861 318659 1209 267 955 1273
February 21 2021 39946 319186 1211 267 907 1277
February 22 2021 40001 319547 1214 267 877 1233
February 23 2021 40041 319904 1217 272 829 1234
February 24 2021 40123 320020 1224 272 853 1217
February 25 2021 40191 320820 1225 272 874 1152
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 6 4.9 4.8% 42 0.07% 58 0.1%
10-19 15 24.7 30.1% 263 0.37% 332 0.47%
20-29 22 29.4 37.2% 325 0.31% 397 0.38%
30-39 9 8.9 9.4% 82 0.11% 126 0.16%
40-49 9 6.4 5.9% 52 0.08% 87 0.13%
50-59 5 5.7 5.8% 51 0.08% 75 0.11%
60-69 2 2.7 3.5% 31 0.06% 39 0.07%
70+ 0 4.0 3.2% 28 0.06% 38 0.08%
All ages 68 86.7 100% 874 0.16% 1152 0.21%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
February 19 2021 558496 2584375 25635 6267 7446 10275
February 20 2021 559172 2588501 25716 6284 7301 10017
February 21 2021 559575 2592363 25743 6284 6465 9749
February 22 2021 559998 2595614 25775 6284 5950 9629
February 23 2021 560564 2598601 25838 6317 5764 9514
February 24 2021 561311 2603118 25893 6342 6008 9440
February 25 2021 562151 2615455 25954 6394 6443 9041
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 68 42.3 6.7% 433 0.07% 589 0.09%
10-19 129 105.4 16.7% 1075 0.14% 1490 0.2%
20-29 152 108.9 17% 1094 0.14% 1480 0.2%
30-39 95 86.9 14% 899 0.12% 1314 0.17%
40-49 126 86.3 13.4% 862 0.12% 1215 0.17%
50-59 107 92.4 14% 905 0.11% 1266 0.16%
60-69 100 64.7 10.4% 668 0.09% 947 0.13%
70+ 63 45.9 7.9% 507 0.08% 740 0.12%
All ages 840 632.7 100% 6443 0.11% 9041 0.16%

Column

Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.

Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):

  • 2wk: Two-week case total (most recent 14 days), rate per 10K of county population
  • 2wk10s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 10-19 population
  • 2wk20s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 20-29 population; since over 50% of students on campus are in early 20s
  • daily7: Daily new-case running average (average over 7 days)
  • posratedaily7 (as a percent): Daily positive-test rate, running average (average over 7 days)

and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:

Criteria 2wk Criteria 2wk20s Criteria daily7 Suggestion
> 25 > 30 urge extra caution
> 28 > 45* decreasing consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH
> 28 > 45* steady to increasing strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH.
> 30 > 50 decreasing ’’ ’’ ’’
> 30 > 50 steady to increasing based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable

*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.

Eau Claire

Eau Claire 2wk Eau Claire 2wk10s Eau Claire 2wk20s Eau Claire current daily7 Eau Claire past daily7 Eau Claire posratedaily7
15.5 18.4 20.5 11.7 12.7 10%

Important Resources:

Chippewa

Chippewa 2wk Chippewa current daily7 Chippewa past daily7 Chippewa posratedaily7
11.9 4.6 7.4 6.3%

Barron

Barron 2wk Barron current daily7 Barron past daily7 Barron posratedaily7
24.3 8.1 8.1 23.7%

La Crosse

La Crosse 2wk La Crosse 2wk10s La Crosse 2wk20s La Crosse current daily7 La Crosse past daily7 La Crosse posratedaily7
14.7 18.1 14.6 11 17.4 5.9%

Dane

Dane 2wk Dane 2wk10s Dane 2wk20s Dane current daily7 Dane past daily7 Dane posratedaily7
21.1 46.7 38.2 86.7 85.9 16.6%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin 2wk Wisconsin 2wk10s Wisconsin 2wk20s Wisconsin current daily7 Wisconsin past daily7 Wisconsin posratedaily7
15.5 19.7 19.6 632.7 782.4 11.1%

Important Resources:

Cumulative

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Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

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Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

References

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Reliable Updated Visuals

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Modeling

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Predicting cumulative deaths in state

  • WI correpondence between Cumulative cases and deaths (at time lag)
    • Starting with late May, after daily tests regularly above 6000
[1] "The number of  cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.2 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.64 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-03-18 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 5440"

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Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges

  • Portage county (Stevens Point): gray
  • Eau Claire county (Eau Claire): blue
  • Dane county (Madison): green
  • La Crosse county (La Crosse): red