Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Various 7-day average trends
Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 19 2021 | 10906 | 47315 | 351 | 104 | 118 | 199 |
| February 20 2021 | 10923 | 47417 | 351 | 104 | 125 | 180 |
| February 21 2021 | 10927 | 47482 | 351 | 104 | 112 | 160 |
| February 22 2021 | 10938 | 47520 | 351 | 104 | 112 | 156 |
| February 23 2021 | 10942 | 47601 | 352 | 105 | 105 | 154 |
| February 24 2021 | 10961 | 47702 | 351 | 104 | 105 | 163 |
| February 25 2021 | 10977 | 47961 | 351 | 104 | 110 | 162 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 0.4 | 7.3% | 8 | 0.07% | 13 | 0.11% |
| 10-19 | 4 | 2.0 | 15.5% | 17 | 0.12% | 25 | 0.18% |
| 20-29 | 5 | 3.3 | 27.3% | 30 | 0.14% | 43 | 0.21% |
| 30-39 | 1 | 0.7 | 8.2% | 9 | 0.07% | 17 | 0.12% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 1.6 | 11.8% | 13 | 0.12% | 14 | 0.13% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 1.1 | 10% | 11 | 0.09% | 18 | 0.14% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 1.0 | 9.1% | 10 | 0.09% | 15 | 0.13% |
| 70+ | 3 | 1.6 | 10.9% | 12 | 0.11% | 17 | 0.16% |
| All ages | 16 | 11.7 | 100% | 110 | 0.11% | 162 | 0.15% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 19 2021 | 6993 | 27804 | 216 | 90 | 63 | 97 |
| February 20 2021 | 7000 | 27847 | 218 | 90 | 60 | 90 |
| February 21 2021 | 7009 | 27886 | 218 | 90 | 57 | 91 |
| February 22 2021 | 7009 | 27914 | 219 | 90 | 47 | 84 |
| February 23 2021 | 7013 | 27958 | 219 | 90 | 44 | 83 |
| February 24 2021 | 7013 | 28008 | 218 | 92 | 43 | 73 |
| February 25 2021 | 7021 | 28230 | 218 | 92 | 51 | 69 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | -0.1 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 1 | 0.01% |
| 10-19 | 3 | 1.3 | 25.5% | 13 | 0.15% | 17 | 0.2% |
| 20-29 | -1 | -0.4 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 4 | 0.06% |
| 30-39 | -2 | -0.3 | 5.9% | 3 | 0.04% | 9 | 0.11% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 0.4 | 13.7% | 7 | 0.09% | 10 | 0.13% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 1.9 | 27.5% | 14 | 0.14% | 18 | 0.19% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 1.4 | 19.6% | 10 | 0.12% | 12 | 0.14% |
| 70+ | 1 | 0.4 | 7.8% | 4 | 0.06% | 6 | 0.08% |
| All ages | 8 | 4.6 | 100% | 51 | 0.08% | 77 | 0.12% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 19 2021 | 5282 | 18508 | 231 | 75 | 87 | 103 |
| February 20 2021 | 5295 | 18530 | 231 | 75 | 90 | 112 |
| February 21 2021 | 5299 | 18557 | 232 | 75 | 82 | 111 |
| February 22 2021 | 5305 | 18570 | 233 | 75 | 80 | 113 |
| February 23 2021 | 5309 | 18577 | 234 | 76 | 73 | 114 |
| February 24 2021 | 5321 | 18612 | 234 | 76 | 76 | 116 |
| February 25 2021 | 5327 | 18661 | 235 | 76 | 73 | 110 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 0.4 | 8.2% | 6 | 0.11% | 9 | 0.17% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 1.0 | 11% | 8 | 0.15% | 12 | 0.22% |
| 20-29 | 1 | 1.7 | 16.4% | 12 | 0.27% | 18 | 0.4% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 1.0 | 9.6% | 7 | 0.13% | 9 | 0.17% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 1.0 | 11% | 8 | 0.16% | 12 | 0.24% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 1.9 | 23.3% | 17 | 0.25% | 21 | 0.31% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.4 | 8.2% | 6 | 0.09% | 11 | 0.17% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.7 | 12.3% | 9 | 0.14% | 18 | 0.28% |
| All ages | 6 | 8.1 | 100% | 73 | 0.16% | 110 | 0.24% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 19 2021 | 12115 | 51411 | 348 | 75 | 170 | 246 |
| February 20 2021 | 12124 | 51518 | 350 | 75 | 145 | 231 |
| February 21 2021 | 12127 | 51602 | 350 | 75 | 131 | 222 |
| February 22 2021 | 12133 | 51647 | 351 | 75 | 125 | 215 |
| February 23 2021 | 12144 | 51771 | 351 | 75 | 132 | 199 |
| February 24 2021 | 12162 | 51976 | 353 | 77 | 135 | 183 |
| February 25 2021 | 12170 | 52510 | 354 | 78 | 136 | 174 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.9 | 8.1% | 11 | 0.09% | 14 | 0.12% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 1.9 | 14.7% | 20 | 0.12% | 30 | 0.18% |
| 20-29 | 3 | 2.4 | 17.6% | 24 | 0.11% | 31 | 0.15% |
| 30-39 | 1 | 1.6 | 14.7% | 20 | 0.15% | 25 | 0.18% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 1.1 | 13.2% | 18 | 0.13% | 20 | 0.15% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 1.3 | 10.3% | 14 | 0.1% | 18 | 0.13% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 0.6 | 8.1% | 11 | 0.08% | 13 | 0.09% |
| 70+ | 2 | 1.3 | 13.2% | 18 | 0.14% | 23 | 0.18% |
| All ages | 8 | 11.0 | 100% | 136 | 0.12% | 174 | 0.15% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 19 2021 | 39744 | 318193 | 1204 | 268 | 937 | 1257 |
| February 20 2021 | 39861 | 318659 | 1209 | 267 | 955 | 1273 |
| February 21 2021 | 39946 | 319186 | 1211 | 267 | 907 | 1277 |
| February 22 2021 | 40001 | 319547 | 1214 | 267 | 877 | 1233 |
| February 23 2021 | 40041 | 319904 | 1217 | 272 | 829 | 1234 |
| February 24 2021 | 40123 | 320020 | 1224 | 272 | 853 | 1217 |
| February 25 2021 | 40191 | 320820 | 1225 | 272 | 874 | 1152 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 6 | 4.9 | 4.8% | 42 | 0.07% | 58 | 0.1% |
| 10-19 | 15 | 24.7 | 30.1% | 263 | 0.37% | 332 | 0.47% |
| 20-29 | 22 | 29.4 | 37.2% | 325 | 0.31% | 397 | 0.38% |
| 30-39 | 9 | 8.9 | 9.4% | 82 | 0.11% | 126 | 0.16% |
| 40-49 | 9 | 6.4 | 5.9% | 52 | 0.08% | 87 | 0.13% |
| 50-59 | 5 | 5.7 | 5.8% | 51 | 0.08% | 75 | 0.11% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 2.7 | 3.5% | 31 | 0.06% | 39 | 0.07% |
| 70+ | 0 | 4.0 | 3.2% | 28 | 0.06% | 38 | 0.08% |
| All ages | 68 | 86.7 | 100% | 874 | 0.16% | 1152 | 0.21% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 19 2021 | 558496 | 2584375 | 25635 | 6267 | 7446 | 10275 |
| February 20 2021 | 559172 | 2588501 | 25716 | 6284 | 7301 | 10017 |
| February 21 2021 | 559575 | 2592363 | 25743 | 6284 | 6465 | 9749 |
| February 22 2021 | 559998 | 2595614 | 25775 | 6284 | 5950 | 9629 |
| February 23 2021 | 560564 | 2598601 | 25838 | 6317 | 5764 | 9514 |
| February 24 2021 | 561311 | 2603118 | 25893 | 6342 | 6008 | 9440 |
| February 25 2021 | 562151 | 2615455 | 25954 | 6394 | 6443 | 9041 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 68 | 42.3 | 6.7% | 433 | 0.07% | 589 | 0.09% |
| 10-19 | 129 | 105.4 | 16.7% | 1075 | 0.14% | 1490 | 0.2% |
| 20-29 | 152 | 108.9 | 17% | 1094 | 0.14% | 1480 | 0.2% |
| 30-39 | 95 | 86.9 | 14% | 899 | 0.12% | 1314 | 0.17% |
| 40-49 | 126 | 86.3 | 13.4% | 862 | 0.12% | 1215 | 0.17% |
| 50-59 | 107 | 92.4 | 14% | 905 | 0.11% | 1266 | 0.16% |
| 60-69 | 100 | 64.7 | 10.4% | 668 | 0.09% | 947 | 0.13% |
| 70+ | 63 | 45.9 | 7.9% | 507 | 0.08% | 740 | 0.12% |
| All ages | 840 | 632.7 | 100% | 6443 | 0.11% | 9041 | 0.16% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.5 | 18.4 | 20.5 | 11.7 | 12.7 | 10% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11.9 | 4.6 | 7.4 | 6.3% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24.3 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 23.7% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.7 | 18.1 | 14.6 | 11 | 17.4 | 5.9% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21.1 | 46.7 | 38.2 | 86.7 | 85.9 | 16.6% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.5 | 19.7 | 19.6 | 632.7 | 782.4 | 11.1% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.2 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.64 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-03-18 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 5440"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges